Baku, the world's largest city below sea level, benefits—at least in the short term—from the impacts of climate change, which continue to shrink the Caspian Sea. This ironic twist makes it a suitable backdrop for the 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29) where fossil fuel interests held an oversized role. The presence of 1,770 fossil fuel lobbyists vastly outnumbered representatives from climate-vulnerable nations, highlighting a troubling misalignment between COP's scale and its foundational goals.
Despite reaching an agreement, many civil society groups, including Power for All, found the outcome lackluster, at best. Moreover, the potential impact of the limited financial commitments remain questionable due to the lack of meaningful metrics to measure their effectiveness.
Central to the summit's discussions was the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), established as part of the Paris Accord in 2015 its aim is to enhance climate finance post-2025. This ambitious framework aims to build on the initial $100 billion target established at the Copenhagen Climate Summit in 2009, fostering global partnerships and enhancing trust among nations—both critical for effectively executing the Paris Agreement. Despite the idealistic frameworks, the actual deployment of these funds is fraught with inefficiencies. World Bank President Ajay Banga highlighted bureaucratic delays: "Currently, a World Bank project takes 27 months before a single dollar gets out the door" (Banga, 2024).
Transparency in funding remains a significant issue, raising concerns about how funds are disbursed and used, particularly in the solar energy sector. Power for All has stressed the need for clearer financial tracking and advocates for the implementation of Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) that measure the direct impact of funding within the distributed renewable energy (DRE) sector. These KPIs would track the percentage of committed funds actually disbursed and monitor the progression of renewable energy projects from planning to execution. They would help identify the financial and policy barriers that continue to impede progress, as evidenced by projects like Kenya’s Off-grid Solar Access Project (KOSAP), which has disbursed only 29% of its funds since its launch in 2017.
Ann Harrison, a Climate Justice Advisor, criticized the dynamics at COP29: “The world’s wealthiest countries have bullied lower-income countries into accepting a miserly finance agreement which could saddle them with huge debts” (Harrison, 2024). This sentiment underscores the disconnection between the negotiations and the needs of those most affected by climate change.
Further transparency is needed to mitigate the pervasive influence of fossil fuel interests at COP. Stricter regulations on lobbyist participation and enhanced transparency are required, including more stringent conflict of interest policies that restrict fossil fuel lobbyists' access to negotiation spaces. All participants, particularly those representing or funded by fossil fuel interests, should be required to overtly disclose their affiliations and funding sources. At the same time representation from climate-vulnerable and underrepresented nations needs to be increased in the negotiation process, to ensure that those countries most impacted have an equitable voice in shaping outcomes, potentially through financial and logistical support for delegates from these nations.
The NCQG's potential impact is monumental, aiming to bridge significant financial gaps. The High-Level Expert Group on Climate Finance estimates that emerging markets and developing countries, excluding China, need approximately $2.4 trillion a year by 2030 to meet climate and nature goals—a stark increase from current investments (Expert Group, 2024).
Despite the challenges, the NCQG represents a crucial step in global climate efforts. By setting a new financial target, it aims to support vulnerable communities and catalyze private sector investment. However, the success of the NCQG hinges on equitable representation, transparent and robust monitoring, accountability mechanisms, and most importantly, adequate funding. The modest and hard-fought increase in the budget to $300 billion annually—when US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen cites that $3 trillion in new capital per year is required to transition the world to a low-carbon economy—underscores the stark failure of COP29.
Reflecting on the outcomes of COP29, it's evident that without transparent, accountable and action-oriented commitments, achieving global energy goals remains elusive. We need to understand which countries are extending climate finance under the definition of the UNFCCC and which countries and sectors are receiving it. This information is often obscured, hindering effective negotiation of a meaningful budget. Furthermore, robust, annually assessed KPIs are necessary to counter the alarming influence of fossil fuel interests at the summit, ensuring COP can fulfill its mission of facilitating genuine global climate action.
Image Credit: Eoneren, iStock